MLB second half preview
Here are my predictions for all 30 MLB teams for the rest of the season as of 7/23/12.
Lets first look at teams win/loss records and their WAR (wins above replacement; is an overall assessment of how many more wins a given player contributed to their team than a replacement-level player at the same position would. A replace player is a fringe minor leaguer. For example, if Derek Jeter's WAR is 5, then the yankees replace him with a 30 year old triple a player, they would lose 5 wins. A team of all replacement players would win 45 games in a 162 game season and 26 games to this point).
W L WAR
TEX 56 38 32.2
STL 50 45 31.2
NYY 57 38 30.6
ARI 47 48 29.9
WSN 55 39 28.2
LAA 52 44 28.2
ATL 52 43 27.9
CIN 55 40 27.1
BOS 48 48 26.9
PHI 42 54 26
DET 52 44 25.2
SFG 53 42 24.4
MIL 44 50 24.3
NYM 47 48 23.6
LAD 52 44 22.4
CHW 50 45 22.2
OAK 51 44 21.1
PIT 54 40 21
TBR 49 47 20.8
TOR 48 47 20.4
MIA 44 51 20.4
KCR 40 54 18.7
COL 36 58 18.7
CLE 47 48 17.6
SEA 42 55 17.1
MIN 40 55 16.7
SDP 41 56 16
CHC 38 56 15.4
BAL 51 44 13.7
HOU 34 62 13.1
For the most part, the higher the WAR, the better the team is. However, their are some obvious outliers, such as the BAL (orioles) who are 51-44 but have the second least WAR, ARI (diamondbacks) who have the 4th highest WAR, but are a game below .500, etc. Lets now go more into depth and see "WAR Wins" (the amount of wins a team should have based on their WAR), and see the teams who are the most and least lucky.
The 1st number is wins, then losses, WAR, WAR wins, Difference, Pythagorean difference (pythagorean record is the record you should have based on the amount of runs you score)
W L WAR WAR wins Difference Pythagorean difference
BAL 51 44 13.7 39.7 -11.3 2
PIT 54 40 21 47 -7 -1
OAK 51 44 21.1 47.1 -3.9 2
LAD 52 44 22.4 48.4 -3.6 -2
CLE 47 48 17.6 43.6 -3.4 2
SFG 53 42 24.4 50.4 -2.6 2
TBR 49 47 20.8 46.8 -2.2 -2
CIN 55 40 27.1 53.1 -1.9 -1
CHW 50 45 22.2 48.2 -1.8 4
TOR 48 47 20.4 46.4 -1.6 -3
DET 52 44 25.2 51.2 -0.8 1
WSN 55 39 28.2 54.2 -0.8 -6
NYY 57 38 30.6 56.6 -0.4 1
SDP 41 56 16 42 1 -4
SEA 42 55 17.1 43.1 1.1 -2
ATL 52 43 27.9 53.9 1.9 -5
LAA 52 44 28.2 54.2 2.2 4
TEX 56 38 32.2 58.2 2.2 0
MIA 44 51 20.4 46.4 2.4 2
NYM 47 48 23.6 49.6 2.6 1
MIN 40 55 16.7 42.7 2.7 0
CHC 38 56 15.4 41.4 3.4 8
KCR 40 54 18.7 44.7 4.7 -4
BOS 48 48 26.9 52.9 4.9 2
HOU 34 62 13.1 39.1 5.1 -3
MIL 44 50 24.3 50.3 6.3 -1
STL 50 45 31.2 57.2 7.2 -2
COL 36 58 18.7 44.7 8.7 4
ARI 47 48 29.9 55.9 8.9 1
PHI 42 54 26 52 10 -3
As you can see, Baltimore, Pittsburg, and Oakland are all extremely lucky, while Philadelphia, Arizona, and Colorado are unlucky. Based on this data, this should effect what teams should do at the trade deadline. For example, if Pittsburg and the Dodgers (4th luckiest) want to make the playoffs, they have to realize they do not have a good enough team as they think, and should trade for upgraded players. Also, a team like the DBacks should also try to make some moves, as luck would eventually turn their way, and teams ahead of them in their division (Dodgers and Giants, 4th and 6th luckiest teams respectively) are eventually going to have to start playing like what their talent says.
Furthermore, here are my predictions of 3 teams that are going to drop out of the playoff hunt, and 3 teams that could go back into it.
Teams that will drop out
1. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have actually been outscorn this season and are first in difference in WAR record (-11) and pythagorean record (8). Look for them to finish the season with 70-75 wins.
2. Pittsburg Pirates 3. San Francisco Giants: I pu these teams together becacuse both of them have negative differences in WAR (-7 and -2.6), pythagorean record (PIT has 2 SFG has 4), and are below .500 against teams with winning records and have acculminated 3/5ths of their wins against teams under .500.
Teams ready to make a run
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks have underachieved by 9 wins according to WAR and 3 according to pythagorean record. Also, as I mentioned before, the Giants and Dodgers have caught some lucky breaks, so look for them to make a run.
2. Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox have been very unlucky. They underachieved by 5 wins according to WAR and 4 according to pythagorean record (highest in MLB)
3. ST. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals have outscored their opponents by .9 runs this season, tied for the highest in MLB with the Texas Rangers. They have underachieved by 7.2 wins according to WAR and 4 according to pythagoream record. Look for them to leapfrog the pirates and possibly beat out the Reds for the division